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Exponential change around us – from atoms, apps to reaching the moon

As a kid, the moon fascinated me. I would spend countless hours wondering how to reach it – perhaps a long ladder from my bedroom window or a rope to climb all the way up. Imagine my surprise at discovering I didn’t need a ladder or a rope but a piece of paper. Of course, the paper is unusually sized – as big as a newspaper and as fine as silk. I have to keep folding it in half. With every fold, the thickness of the paper doubles. 18 folds later, I would reach the height of an average human being, 26 folds later, the top of the Empire State Building and 45 folds later, I would get to the moon. If I had heard about this moonshot experiment as a kid, I would have rolled my eyes and gone back to my Rapunzel-esque daydreams. Now, however, I find the idea behind it not only fascinating but also powerful. How each fold not just adds but doubles what is already there, making the next fold bigger than the last. Compounding. 

Thinking about the way one thing builds on top of the other also reminds me of fifteenth century Germany. Johannes Gutenberg has just developed the movable-type printing press, a machine capable of producing up to 3,600 pages per day as compared to 40 pages painstakingly copied by hand. Taking Europe by storm, the machine sparks the Printing Revolution. This doesn’t just mean more books but also an unprecedented exchange of ideas. Books become cheaper, literacy spreads, and movements such as the Scientific Revolution emerge, reshaping public imagination. One change creates ripple effects that inspire more changes. Cascading. 

Exponential change emerges when compounding and cascading happen in tandem and reinforce one another.

Physicist Albert Bartlett believes “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” At a time when creating and sharing anything from opinions to lifestyle is its own economy, I wonder if anyone back then could have imagined the printing press would lead us here. Be it the Printing Revolution or the Internet becoming part of everyday life, exponential change is visible across transformations. Change that rapidly spreads across a large population and creates a new state from where there is no going back. 

However, it is hard to foresee exponential change or notice it in the middle of such transformations. I experienced the shift from public calling booths to the indestructible Nokia 3310 to smartphones, from dial-up connections to broadband, letting me take the Internet everywhere I go (or the other way around, really, given my reliance on GPS). Yet, it is only retrospectively that I can see the domino effect of one change leading to more and rapid changes. 

Maybe Bartlett’s observation is an invitation to pay closer attention to the way change unfolds, the rhythms of everyday life and nature. If I can recognise exponential change around me, I may be able to make out the common patterns in the ways it manifests. These patterns can help design for it.  

So, I go looking… 

I start 13.8 billion years ago. The universe is a hot, dense and small point. The Big Bang sets into motion the cooling and expansion of space. This leads to matter and atoms, later stars and planets. One of these planets is ours. For billions of years, life on this planet is simple. Until changes in temperature, geography and tectonic activity lead to an increase in oxygen levels in seawater and life takes off, literally. Something scarce becomes abundant, sparking more and different changes. 

These new and complex organisms evolve into early human beings. At first, they use simple stone tools for survival. As new materials and techniques emerge, tools grow more sophisticated, shifting the focus from survival to civilisation. Iron organises society further. Trade expands, writing allows information to spread and settlements become permanent. Then, industries and mass manufacturing change the way people live and spend time. Innovation accelerates! Among these innovations is the transistor. It ushers in transformation like never before. First come the Internet and personal computers, then smartphones and social media. They stretch the imagination of what is possible, connect people living on opposite sides of the planet, change everyday routines completely. Innovation serves as the foundation of transformation.

Oof – that’s a lot to take in. From atoms to apps, I’ve spent so much time looking back. I should stop peering into my screen and, as the slang goes, “touch grass.” 

Outdoors, I spot a dandelion and blow on it. I used to believe that if I made a wish, the seeds, dispersing far and wide, would carry it along. The sight of dandelion seeds shimmering in the wind is still magical, and the science behind the way they spread even more so. These seeds, all independent of the ‘mother’ plant, travel far, sprouting in soil, between rocks and through cracks in pavements, sustained by long and deep taproots that find water and nutrients. Something small spreads, adapts to changing conditions, and persists. 

Looking up, I catch sight of thousands of starlings flying together and creating intricate shapes. Known as a murmuration, this phenomenon isn’t random but deeply calibrated. Birds follow simple rules: being at a safe distance from one another, aligning speed and direction with nearby birds, so that they move cohesively and, when a threat appears, quickly change direction or shape. Acting in response to emerging changes. 

These starlings, coordinated despite there being no leader, remind me of Fridays for the Future. A global movement of school students who skip classes on Fridays to take part in demonstrations against climate change. It was started by Greta Thunberg protesting outside the Swedish parliament in 2018 and spread rapidly across the world, inspiring millions of students to act. These demonstrations don’t happen because Thunberg is organising or even taking part in them but because the idea of climate action strikes a chord. Decentralised micro-communities acting independently yet taking coordinated action towards a shared goal. 

Back in my regular life, what comes most easy to me is long hours on my phone. The first thing I do in the morning (a habit I’m trying hard to kick) is scroll. While the brainrot is real, I find it so interesting to see how interactions (a heart react, a share) turn into trends and how trends continually shape the way we talk, dress and act – as individuals and collectively. Signals that spread fast and are adopted by many. 

Fun fact:The phrase “touch grass” is such a signal. It likely originated in gaming communities as advice to step away from the screen. In the pandemic, it spread across different communities and came into popular usage. Today, it’s a call to self-care, an insult and even a fashion showcase! 

Phew! I am breathless from the breadth of my journey. From the very existence of humanity to the computer on which I am typing, compounding and cascading are the underlying forces behind transformations. They show up in how shared tools and resources enable faster and contextual innovation. How innovation, in the right conditions, becomes the bedrock for massive change. How people embrace, add to and share ideas that resonate. How in an interconnected and interdependent world, small changes ripple outwards. 

While exponential change has been visible across transformations, the problems that face humanity today have exponential characteristics too. Climate change, inequality, violence and poverty don’t manifest or grow linearly and separately. They compound and cascade – multiplying, shapeshifting and reinforcing one another. For example, intergenerational poverty may intensify due to climate disaster and as a result, aggravate gender-based violence. 

So much is being done to address problems but I see the need for more. A burst of energy, a conductor, a meeting point, a shared vocabulary, a way to dance together without following a uniform choreography… The need to reimagine and design for exponential change. 

The patterns I noticed seem like clues to pull this off. To design for change the same way change unfolds. To work with the tides rather than against. To leverage abundance. To respond to exponential problems with exponential change. 

See how change leaders are designing for exponential change.